Sabtu, 21 Mei 2011

MAAKL Mutual Berhad. FBM KLCI stages mild follow-through rebound


THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) staged a very mild follow-through rebound for the week ended yesterday.

It stayed above its major psychological support of 1,500 points when it closed at 1,541.03 yesterday.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia consolidated last week's gains, in tandem with the technical pullbacks on the New York and regional stock markets on Monday. The FBM KLCI trended between an intra-day low of 1,536.27 and an intra-day high of 1,545.34. It closed at 1,536.27, giving a day-on-day loss of 4.47 points, or 0.29 per cent.

The FBM KLCI staged a technical rebound on Wednesday. It trended from its intra-day low of 1,537.33 to its intra-day high of 1,543.35. It closed at 1,541.27, giving a day-on-day gain of 5 points.

Trading remained sideways when the FBM KLCI edged marginally higher on Thursday. It trended from its intra-day low of 1,541.97 to its intra-day high of 1,550.62. It ended the day at 1,544.02, giving a day-on-day gain of 2.75 points.

The benchmark index resumed its consolidation yesterday when the it consolidated in tandem with the regional stock markets. The FBM KLCI trended between a day low of 1,541.03 and a day high of 1,547.94 before closing at 1,541.03, giving a day-on-day loss of 2.99 points, or 0.19 per cent.

On the overseas markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average consolidated Within tight trading ranges over the last four trading days. The Dow closed at 12,605.32 points on Thursday, giving a four-day gain of 9.57 points.

The Tokyo stock market staged a follow-through technical pullback during the week. The Nikkei 225 Index closed at 9,607.08 points yesterday, giving a week-on-week loss of 41.69 points.

Hong Kong stocks staged a technical pullback over the last four trading days. The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,199.39 points, giving a week-on-week loss of 76.88 points, or 0.33 per cent.

On the home front, the FBM KLCI eked out a week-on-week gain of 0.29 point, or 0.02 per cent.

The following are the readings of some of its technical indicators:

Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI continued to stay above its 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed above its neutral reference line at the market close yesterday.

On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend stayed above the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.

Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 56.69 per cent level yesterday. 

Outlook

The FBM KLCI hit its intra-week low of 1,536.27 on Thursday, staging a successful re-test of this column's envisaged support zone (1,502 to 1,536 levels).

Subsequent mild technical rebounds hit its intra-week high of 1,550.62 on Thursday, moving into the confines of this column's envisaged resistance zone (1,544 to 1,578 levels). 

A quick review of the performances of the FBM KLCI's 30 components shows losers beating gainers by 18 to 12. 

The benchmark index's weekly charts continued to stay below the support of its intermediate-term uptrend (see FBM KLCI's weekly chart A5:A6) during the week. 

Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's had since stay above its immediate downside support (see FBM KLCI's daily chart B3:B4) over the week. 

The FBM KLCI's daily and monthly fast MACDs (moving average convergence divergence indicators) continued to stay above their respective slow MACDs yesterday. Its weekly fast MACDs continued to stay below its weekly slow MACDs. 

The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 56.69 per cent level on Friday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 56.81 and 71.07 levels respectively. Last week, this column commented that the FBM KLCI might stage a re-challenge of its immediate overhead resistance at 1,550. It did. The benchmark index hit its intra-week high of 1,550.62 on Thursday.

Judging from its behaviour over the last five trading days, the FBM KLCI is likely to consolidate between 1,530 and 1,540 before resuming its technical rebounds. 

Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone is at the 1,545 to 1,579 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,503 to 1,537 levels.

The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

Read more: FBM KLCI stages mild follow-through rebound http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/Technically205/Article/#ixzz1Mzbp5joV



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Ahad, 15 Mei 2011

Unit Trust. Why it doesn't make sense to time the Markets?

By Datuk Noripah Kamso 
Published: 2008/10/17


NEWS on rising oil prices, rising cost of living, subprime lending, a weaker US dollar and even the local political scene is understandably making many investors anxious. In these situations, investors often succumb to their fears, disrupt their portfolios, and question their long-term financial plans. These trying times, however, can mould investors to become better informed and more disciplined. 

Volatility, or wide, rapid swings in equity prices, is an inherent part of investing. It takes courage, discipline and foresight to remain invested in the market, especially when the urge to avoid financial pain is strong. Investors may be prone to sell in a volatile market because they think they can wait until the market settles lower and go back in when the market starts to recover. This strategy seems to make common sense.

The problem is when investors sell, they can increase their chances of missing the major market movements that signal the start of a longer recovery. Many of these major upside moves can happen quickly, often in just a few days. To avoid missing these key days, investors should consider staying invested and not panic-sell.

Let's look at our analysis of what would happen if an investor missed out on 50 of the best trading days on Bursa Malaysia, as measured by the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI). How would that have affected his or her gains over the last 15 years?

The results are enlightening: 
* Missing even five of the best trading days results in negative returns of 17.39 per cent.
* Miss the 10 best trading days and the loss almost triples to 49.13 per cent.
* Miss the 30 best trading days and the loss soars to 83.07 per cent. This represents just 30 days out of approximately 3807 trading days in total, or merely 0.79 per cent of the total trading days 
* However, an investor who remained invested throughout the last 15 years enjoyed returns of 82.25 per cent.


An investor might then wonder: "But what if I'm able to avoid the worst days? That would surely help me get potentially better returns."

So now, our analysis turns to what would happen if an investor managed to avoid the worst trading days of the KLCI. How would that have affected the potential returns over the last 15 years?

The results are equally fascinating: 
* Remaining invested through- out the last 15 years gives returns of 82.25 per cent.
* Avoiding just the five worst trading days results in positive returns of 260.15 per cent.
* Avoid the 10 worst trading days and the gain jumps to 413.62 per cent.
* Avoid the 50 worst trading days and the returns are a phenomenal 3266.59 per cent.

However, it is important to note that 50 out of about 3,807 trading days represent only 1.3 per cent. Would an investor have the foresight, expertise and skill to identify the 50 worst performing days over the last 15 years, ahead of time?

Let's recap the lessons from these scenarios and results: 

Missing the Best Trading Days
* Missing just the five best trading days over the last 15 years results in a cumulative negative return of 17.39 per cent.
* Missing the 50 best trading days over the last 15 years results in a cumulative negative return of 92.50 per cent.
Avoiding the Worst Trading Days
* Avoiding the 50 worst trading days over the last 15 years results in cumulative returns of 3266.59 per cent. The probability of this happening is one out of 10179, an unimaginable number.
* Not avoiding the worst trading days in the last 15 years will still yield cumulative returns of 82.25 per cent.


Historical results have shown that timing the market, in the hopes of avoiding negative returns over the long-term, doesn't make much sense for the average investor. The downside in not remaining invested over the last 15 years - even for only the best five days - is a lot higher (-17.39 per cent) than staying invested through all the worst trading days over the last 15 years (82.25 per cent).

This illustrates why it is vital for investors to remain invested in equity funds as part of their long-term portfolio asset allocation and why they should not try to time the market.

Staying invested during difficult times, however, requires investors to confront their emotions during volatile periods and control the urge to sell or reduce their equity holdings.


Datuk Noripah Kamso is the chief executive of CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd. 





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Unit Amanah. Apa Itu Compound Interest?

Sedikit maklumat berkenaan compounding di dalam pelaburan ataupun simpanan.
Secara ringkas compound interest adalah interest yang dikenakan ke atas simpanan+interest.
lagi banyak dan lagi lama anda menyimpan, kadar peningkatan keuntungan akan lebih banyak dan lebih cepat. kadar pergerakan keuntungan adalah seperti di graf di bawah. Tahun 1-5, peningkatan graf agak mendatar. Tetapi dari tahun ke 6 peningkatan graf adalah lebih cepat. Lebih info, boleh baca dengan lebih lanjut dari penerangan di bawah.

Dari http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-compound-interest.htm




Compound interest is interest calculated on the principal amount invested, which is then added to the principal amount, and compounded again. Compound interest can be earned daily, weekly, monthly or yearly. Generally the more times an amount is compounded, the more money you can make.
As long as you leave an interest earning account alone, by not removing money from it, you begin making more money on your investment (given a stable interest rate) because the money you earn is added back to the principle amount. It’s a simple fact that more money earninginterest makes you more money. Each time interest is compounded, the money earned gets added to the total.
If you were raising two rabbits, you might view a similar thing. If the bunnies produced a litter, and you kept all those bunnies, then you might have possibly eight rabbits. The original bunnies would keep on breeding, as would the new litter, and you’d end up with more rabbits then you knew what to do with. Compound interest won’t be quite that dramatic, unless you’re investing huge sums of money. The important parallel is that the first pair of bunnies (your original investment) and their offspring (interest) now combine together to produce yet more bunnies, and as combined, they will produce a great deal more than if they were sold off and separated.



What Does Compound Interest Mean?
Interest that accrues on the initial principal and the accumulated interest of a principal deposit, loan or debt. Compounding of interest allows a principal amount to grow at a faster rate than simple interest, which is calculated as a percentage of only the principal amount. 

Investopedia explains Compound Interest
The more frequently interest is added to the principal, the faster the principal grows and the higher the compound interest will be. The frequency at which the interest is compounded is established at the initial stages of securing the loan. Generally, interest tends to be calculated on an annual basis, although other terms may be established at the time of the loan.



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Ahad, 1 Mei 2011

Unit Trust. FBM KLCI stages mild technical rebound



From New Straits Time : http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/tock30/Article/

THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rebounded for the week ended yesterday. It stayed above its major psychological support of 1,500 points when it closed at 1,534.95 yesterday.

The FBM KLCI staged a mild technical rebound on Monday. The index opened at 1,523.46 points before hitting its intra-day high of 1,526.83. It closed at 1,524.05, giving a day-on-day gain of 1.30 points.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia continued to reboundon Tuesday. The benchmark index trended between its intra-day low of 1,520.49 and its intra-day high of 1,527.56. It closed at 1,527.34 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 3.29 points, or 0.22 per cent.

The FBM KLCI staged a follow-through technical rebound on Wednesday. It trended from a low of 1,526.58 to a high of 1,534.69. The index closed at 1,529.91 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 2.57 points.

The key index rebounded in earnest on Thursday. It trended from its intra-day low of 1,531.11 to its intra-day high of 1,535.30. It ended the day at 1,535.30 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 5.39 points, or 0.35 per cent.

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia consolidated its four-day gains yesterday. The FBM KLCI opened at 1,540.55 before slipping down to the day's low of 1,529.63. It closed at 1,534.95 points, giving a day-on-day loss of 0.35 points, or 0.02 per cent.

The FBM KLCI posted a week-on-week increase of 12.20 points, or 0.80 per cent.

Among other indices, the FBM Small Cap Index lost 68.36 points, or 0.52 per cent, to close at 13,102.10 points while the FBM ACE Index eased 20.75 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 4,3876.50 yesterday.

The following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:

* Moving Averages: The FBM KLCI had since stayed below its 10-, 20- and 30-day moving averages. However, it continued to stay above its longer term 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. 

* Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index continued to stay below its neutral reference line at the market close on Friday.

* On Balance Volume: Its short-term OBV trend stayed above the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.

* Relative Strength Index: Its 14-day RSI stood at the 54.02 per cent level yesterday.

Outlook

The FBM KLCI's earlier technical consolidation hit its intra-week low of 1,520.49 on Tuesday, staging a re-test at this column's envisaged support zone (1,485 to 1,519 levels). 

The index's subsequent technical rebound lifted it to an intra-week high of 1,540.55 yesterday, stopping out at this column's envisaged resistance zone (1,526 to 1,560).

The FBM KLCI's weekly charts continued to stay above the support of its intermediate-term uptrend (see FBM KLCI's weekly chart B1:B2) during the week. With that, the FBM KLCI stayed above its intermediate-term uptrend.

Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's continued to stay below its immediate downside support (see FBM KLCI's daily chart B3:B4) over the week. 

The FBM KLCI's monthly fast MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator) continued to stay above its monthly slow MACD yesterday. Its daily and weekly fast MACDs continued to stay below their respective slow MACDs.

The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at 54.02 per cent level yesterday. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI stayed at 56.45 and 70.68 levels respectively.

Last week, this column mentioned that the FBM KLCI was likely to stage a gradual rebound over the next five trading days. It did. Heavyweight index-linked counters were said to be likely to provide the momentum in lifting the FBM KLCI. It did that too.

The benchmark index is likely to alternate between consolidations and mild technical rebounds. Second and third liners will continue to consolidate recent rebound gains.

Next week, the FBM KLCI's envisaged resistance zone is at the 1,539 to 1,573 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,496 to 1,530 levels.

The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

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